On 20 August 2025, Health Minister Mark Butler delivered a high-stakes speech at the National Press Club, unveiling sweeping reforms to the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS). At the centre of his announcement was a new $2 billion “Thriving Kids” program, designed to support children with mild developmental delays outside the NDIS.
While the speech was framed as a visionary reset for the Scheme, it also exposed a deeper issue: the federal and state governments’ long-standing failure to agree on how to deliver foundational supports. And rather than resolving that impasse through collaboration, Butler appears to have bypassed it entirely.
The Real Crisis: Foundational Supports Left Undelivered
The concept of foundational supports—mainstream services for children with mild to moderate developmental needs—has been on the national agenda since the 2022 NDIS Review. It was endorsed by National Cabinet in 2023. Yet two years later, there’s been little to show for it.
Why? Because the states and the Commonwealth have been locked in a stalemate over funding, delivery models, and accountability. In the meantime, families have been left with no option but to seek help through the NDIS—even when their children’s needs could be better met elsewhere.
Minister Butler’s announcement of Thriving Kids is, in effect, a circuit-breaker. By committing $2 billion in federal funding and publicly calling on states to match it, he’s forcing their hand. It’s a bold move—but let’s not confuse it with genuine intergovernmental cooperation.
A Top-Down Fix Disguised as Reform
One of the most striking aspects of Butler’s speech was the lack of consultation. State premiers, including those from Queensland, Victoria, and Western Australia, said they were not briefed in advance. Disability advocacy groups were also left out of the loop. Even the Opposition was caught off guard.
This wasn’t co-design. It was a federal directive, delivered from the podium of the National Press Club.
And while Butler spoke of “maturity” and “shared responsibility,” the rollout of Thriving Kids began with a unilateral announcement—one that risks alienating the very partners needed to make it work.
Can Thriving Kids Succeed Without State Buy-In?
The policy logic behind Thriving Kids is sound. The NDIS was never intended to be the default system for every child with a developmental delay. Rebuilding mainstream services is essential. And the current growth trajectory of the Scheme—still above 10% annually—is unsustainable.
But as the boss say’s “implementation is everything.”
Without state cooperation, the program risks becoming another underfunded initiative that fails to deliver on its promise. And without meaningful engagement with the disability community, it risks repeating the very mistakes that led families to rely on the NDIS in the first place.
Public Trust Hinges on Delivery, Not Rhetoric
The public response to Butler’s speech has been mixed. Many Australians support the idea of refocusing the NDIS and investing in early intervention. But families—especially those with children on the autism spectrum—are understandably anxious.
The government has promised that no current NDIS participants will lose support. Trust has been eroded by years of policy drift and political finger-pointing. Rebuilding that trust will require more than speeches. It will require transparency, co-design, and a clear roadmap for implementation.
Final Thoughts: A Necessary Reset, But at What Cost?
Mark Butler’s NDIS reforms may prove to be a turning point. They address real problems with real urgency. But they also reflect a deeper failure of governance: the inability of federal and state governments to work together on foundational supports.
By going it alone, the Commonwealth has taken control of the narrative—but at the risk of undermining the very collaboration needed to make the reforms succeed.
If Thriving Kids delivers on its promise, it will be despite the fractured process that birthed it—not because of it.
